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B68 vs B36 Torshavn — Meistaradeildin 2019

B68
B68
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
B36 Torshavn
B36 Torshavn
3/10/2024MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 1Svangaskarð

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

B6823%
×Draw22%
B36 Torshavn55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B68
1.23
B36 Torshavn
1.99

B36 Torshavn creates 62% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 102 away

creates per match

B68
1.21
B36 Torshavn
2.03

allows per match

B68
1.96
B36 Torshavn
1.26

finishing

B68+0.00on par
B36 Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B68 ↓

B36 Torshavn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

B68 or draw
45%
B68 or B36 Torshavn
78%
Draw or B36 Torshavn
77%

Winning margin

B68 wins by 2+
9%
B36 Torshavn wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

B68 1+ goals
71%
B68 2+ goals
35%
B68 3+ goals
13%
B36 Torshavn 1+ goals
86%
B36 Torshavn 2+ goals
59%
B36 Torshavn 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

B68 (draw refunded)
30%
B36 Torshavn (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B68 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.96 · 76 matches

B36 Torshavn away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B68 attack 1.21 + B36 Torshavn defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

B36 Torshavn attack 2.03 + B68 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

B68 scores more
23%
level
22%
B36 Torshavn scores more
55%

B36 Torshavn at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "B36 Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: B68 vs B36 Torshavn

B36 Torshavn beat B68 3-0 in Meistaradeildin on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Svangaskarð in Toftir, Eysturoy.