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B36 Torshavn vs HB Torshavn — Meistaradeildin 2019

B36 Torshavn
B36 Torshavn
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HB Torshavn
HB Torshavn
9/25/2023MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 23Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

B36 Torshavn35%
×Draw23%
HB Torshavn41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B36 Torshavn
1.53
HB Torshavn
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

creates per match

B36 Torshavn
2.01
HB Torshavn
2.18

allows per match

B36 Torshavn
1.16
HB Torshavn
1.05

finishing

B36 Torshavn+0.00on par
HB Torshavn+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B36 Torshavn ↓

HB Torshavn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

B36 Torshavn or draw
59%
B36 Torshavn or HB Torshavn
77%
Draw or HB Torshavn
65%

Winning margin

B36 Torshavn wins by 2+
17%
HB Torshavn wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

B36 Torshavn 1+ goals
78%
B36 Torshavn 2+ goals
45%
B36 Torshavn 3+ goals
20%
HB Torshavn 1+ goals
81%
HB Torshavn 2+ goals
50%
HB Torshavn 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

B36 Torshavn (draw refunded)
46%
HB Torshavn (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B36 Torshavn at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.16 · 103 matches

HB Torshavn away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.05 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B36 Torshavn attack 2.01 + HB Torshavn defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.53

HB Torshavn attack 2.18 + B36 Torshavn defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

B36 Torshavn scores more
35%
level
23%
HB Torshavn scores more
41%

HB Torshavn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "HB Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistaradeildin: B36 Torshavn 0–0 HB Torshavn

B36 Torshavn and HB Torshavn drew 0-0 in Meistaradeildin on September 25, 2023.

The match was played at Gundadalur in Tórshavn, Streymoy.