B36 Torshavn 2–0 B68: Result & Stats

B36 Torshavn

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

B68

M. Egilsson 76'

B. Nielsen 7'

4/8/2023

Meistaradeildin · Round 5Gundadalur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

B36 Torshavn59%

×Draw21%

B6820%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

B36 TorshavnExpected goals in this matchB68

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.11

B36 Torshavn

2.08

B68

1.11

B36 Torshavn creates 87% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 75 away

2.01

creates per match

1.07

1.16

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

B36 Torshavn

2.01

B68

1.07

allows per match

B36 Torshavn

1.16

B68

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

B36 Torshavn+0.00on par

B68+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B36 Torshavn ↓

B68 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

B36 Torshavn or draw

80%

B36 Torshavn or B68

79%

Draw or B68

41%

Winning margin

B36 Torshavn wins by 2+

36%

B68 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

B36 Torshavn 1+ goals

87%

B36 Torshavn 2+ goals

61%

B36 Torshavn 3+ goals

34%

B68 1+ goals

67%

B68 2+ goals

30%

B68 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

B36 Torshavn (draw refunded)

75%

B68 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B36 Torshavn at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.16 · 102 matches

B68 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B36 Torshavn attack 2.01 + B68 defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.08

B68 attack 1.07 + B36 Torshavn defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

B36 Torshavn scores more

59%

level

21%

B68 scores more

20%

B36 Torshavn at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "B36 Torshavn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

55'

55'

58'

61'

A. Johansen← A. Knudsen

61'

T. Skandari← B. Nielsen

70'

F. Petersen← G. Samuelsen

70'

H. Strømsten← A. Jensen

72'

B. Heinesen← H. Agnarsson

72'

S. Sólheim← V. Šabala

76'

M. Egilsson

80'

A. Hansen← B. Dabo

80'

K. Clementsen← S. Lau

87'

M. Samba

88'

S. Nattestad← E. Magnusson

90+1'

M. Lamhauge

B36

B68

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Nielsen

Manager: D. Brimsvík

61'▲A. Johansen←▼A. Knudsen

61'▲T. Skandari←▼B. Nielsen

72'▲B. Heinesen←▼H. Agnarsson

72'▲S. Sólheim←▼V. Šabala

88'▲S. Nattestad←▼E. Magnusson

B36 Torshavn substitutes

JohansenSkandariHeinesenSólheimNattestadJørgensenPrzybylski

Manager: J. á Borg

70'▲F. Petersen←▼G. Samuelsen

70'▲H. Strømsten←▼A. Jensen

80'▲A. Hansen←▼B. Dabo

80'▲K. Clementsen←▼S. Lau

B68 substitutes

PetersenStrømstenHansenClementsenJohannesenDanielsenThomsen