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B 93 vs Naestved — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

B 93
B 93
Preview
17:00
Naestved
Naestved
9/4/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 6
Big match
43%
B 93
model favours
43%25%31%
1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

B 9343%
×Draw25%
Naestved31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

B 93
1.51
Naestved
1.25

B 93 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 43 away

creates per match

B 93
1.62
Naestved
1.19

allows per match

B 93
1.30
Naestved
1.40

finishing

B 93+0.00on par
Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B 93 ↓

Naestved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

B 93 or draw
69%
B 93 or Naestved
75%
Draw or Naestved
57%

Winning margin

B 93 wins by 2+
21%
Naestved wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

B 93 1+ goals
78%
B 93 2+ goals
44%
B 93 3+ goals
19%
Naestved 1+ goals
71%
Naestved 2+ goals
36%
Naestved 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

B 93 (draw refunded)
58%
Naestved (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B 93 at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B 93 attack 1.62 + Naestved defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.51

Naestved attack 1.19 + B 93 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

B 93 scores more
43%
level
25%
Naestved scores more
31%

B 93 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "B 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
93
LDWD
Naestved
WLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

B 93 face Naestved (2nd Division - Group 1)

2nd Division - Group 1 returns with B 93 hosting Naestved. Match starts September 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.