B 93 0–5 Aarhus Fremad: Result & Stats

B 93

FT

0 – 5

Aarhus Fremad

S. Andreasen 87', 83', 34', 26' (pen)

L. Hauge Mortensen 64'

6/5/2021

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Østerbro Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

B 9336%

×Draw25%

Aarhus Fremad39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

B 93Expected goals in this matchAarhus Fremad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.46

B 93

1.39

Aarhus Fremad

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 81 away

1.62

creates per match

1.63

1.30

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

B 93

1.62

Aarhus Fremad

1.63

allows per match

B 93

1.30

Aarhus Fremad

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

B 93+0.00on par

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

B 93 ↓

Aarhus Fremad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

B 93 or draw

61%

B 93 or Aarhus Fremad

75%

Draw or Aarhus Fremad

64%

Winning margin

B 93 wins by 2+

16%

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

B 93 1+ goals

75%

B 93 2+ goals

40%

B 93 3+ goals

16%

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

77%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

43%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

B 93 (draw refunded)

48%

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

B 93 at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

B 93 attack 1.62 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + B 93 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

B 93 scores more

36%

level

25%

Aarhus Fremad scores more

39%

Aarhus Fremad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

S. AndreasenPenalty

34'

S. Andreasen

64'

L. Hauge Mortensen

83'

S. Andreasen

87'

S. Andreasen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff