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Azuqueca vs Tarancón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Azuqueca
Azuqueca
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 2
Tarancón
Tarancón
3/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 25Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Azuqueca40%
×Draw26%
Tarancón34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azuqueca
1.42
Tarancón
1.29

Azuqueca creates 10% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 110 away

creates per match

Azuqueca
1.67
Tarancón
1.28

allows per match

Azuqueca
1.31
Tarancón
1.17

finishing

Azuqueca+0.00on par
Tarancón+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azuqueca ↓

Tarancón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Azuqueca or draw
66%
Azuqueca or Tarancón
74%
Draw or Tarancón
60%

Winning margin

Azuqueca wins by 2+
19%
Tarancón wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Azuqueca 1+ goals
76%
Azuqueca 2+ goals
41%
Azuqueca 3+ goals
17%
Tarancón 1+ goals
72%
Tarancón 2+ goals
37%
Tarancón 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Azuqueca (draw refunded)
54%
Tarancón (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azuqueca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

Tarancón away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azuqueca attack 1.67 + Tarancón defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tarancón attack 1.28 + Azuqueca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Azuqueca scores more
40%
level
26%
Tarancón scores more
34%

Azuqueca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Azuqueca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Azuqueca 3–4 Tarancón

Tarancón beat Azuqueca 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio San Miguel in Azuqueca de Henares.