Azerbaijan vs Lithuania — UEFA Nations League 2018
UEFA Nations League · 4
Lithuania score first in only 17% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
Azerbaijan52%
Lithuania21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Azerbaijan creates 81% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Azerbaijan ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Azerbaijan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches
Lithuania away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Azerbaijan attack 1.00 + Lithuania defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39
Lithuania attack 0.62 + Azerbaijan defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.77
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
Azerbaijan at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "Azerbaijan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 67% of Lithuania’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
- Top-of-the-table clash — Azerbaijan 4 vs Lithuania 4
- Both teams score in only 33% of Lithuania’s matches
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Similar stylesPlaying styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Azerbaijan host Lithuania on Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 13:00. The match is part of the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 season.
Azerbaijan face Lithuania (UEFA Nations League)
UEFA Nations League returns with Azerbaijan hosting Lithuania. Match starts October 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.