Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Azam vs JKT Tanzania — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Azam
Azam
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
12/11/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 13Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Azam57%
×Draw25%
JKT Tanzania18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azam
1.62
JKT Tanzania
0.78

Azam creates 108% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 82 away

creates per match

Azam
1.98
JKT Tanzania
0.95

allows per match

Azam
0.61
JKT Tanzania
1.26

finishing

Azam+0.00on par
JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azam ↓

JKT Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Azam or draw
82%
Azam or JKT Tanzania
75%
Draw or JKT Tanzania
43%

Winning margin

Azam wins by 2+
31%
JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Azam 1+ goals
80%
Azam 2+ goals
48%
Azam 3+ goals
22%
JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
54%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
18%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Azam (draw refunded)
76%
JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azam at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.61 · 111 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azam attack 1.98 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.62

JKT Tanzania attack 0.95 + Azam defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Azam scores more
57%
level
25%
JKT Tanzania scores more
18%

Azam at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Azam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Azam vs JKT Tanzania

Azam beat JKT Tanzania 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 11, 2023.

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.