AZ W 2–4 ADO Den Haag W: Result & Stats

AZ W

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

ADO Den Haag W

11/5/2023

Eredivisie Women · Round 7AFAS Trainingscomplex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

AZ W36%

×Draw24%

ADO Den Haag W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ WExpected goals in this matchADO Den Haag W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.52

AZ W

1.45

ADO Den Haag W

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 73 away

1.27

creates per match

1.60

1.45

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

AZ W

1.27

ADO Den Haag W

1.60

allows per match

AZ W

1.45

ADO Den Haag W

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AZ W+0.00on par

ADO Den Haag W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ W ↓

ADO Den Haag W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

AZ W or draw

61%

AZ W or ADO Den Haag W

76%

Draw or ADO Den Haag W

64%

Winning margin

AZ W wins by 2+

17%

ADO Den Haag W wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

AZ W 1+ goals

77%

AZ W 2+ goals

42%

AZ W 3+ goals

18%

ADO Den Haag W 1+ goals

78%

ADO Den Haag W 2+ goals

45%

ADO Den Haag W 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

AZ W (draw refunded)

48%

ADO Den Haag W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ W at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

ADO Den Haag W away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.63 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ W attack 1.27 + ADO Den Haag W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.45

ADO Den Haag W attack 1.60 + AZ W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AZ W scores more

36%

level

24%

ADO Den Haag W scores more

39%

ADO Den Haag W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ADO Den Haag W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff