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AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven — Eredivisie 2018

AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
12/17/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 16AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

AZ Alkmaar32%
×Draw24%
PSV Eindhoven44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ Alkmaar
1.40
PSV Eindhoven
1.67

PSV Eindhoven creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 27 away

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar
1.72
PSV Eindhoven
1.94

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar
1.39
PSV Eindhoven
1.08

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.28scores more
PSV Eindhoven+0.62scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

PSV Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw
56%
AZ Alkmaar or PSV Eindhoven
76%
Draw or PSV Eindhoven
68%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
15%
PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
75%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
41%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
17%
PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals
81%
PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals
50%
PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
42%
PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.39 · 17 matches

PSV Eindhoven away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.08 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.72 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.40

PSV Eindhoven attack 1.94 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more
32%
level
24%
PSV Eindhoven scores more
44%

PSV Eindhoven at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: AZ Alkmaar 0–4 PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven beat AZ Alkmaar 4-0 in Eredivisie on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar.