AZ Alkmaar vs Olympiakos Piraeus

AZ Alkmaar

Preview

13:00

Olympiakos Piraeus

7/25/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

63%

AZ Alkmaar

model favours

63%22%15%

AZ Alkmaar score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

47%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

AZ Alkmaar63%

×Draw22%

Olympiakos Piraeus15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AZ AlkmaarExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos Piraeus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.80

AZ Alkmaar

1.89

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.80

AZ Alkmaar creates 136% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

2.27

creates per match

0.33

1.27

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar

2.27

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.33

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar

1.27

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par

Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw

85%

AZ Alkmaar or Olympiakos Piraeus

78%

Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus

37%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+

38%

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals

85%

AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals

56%

AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals

29%

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

55%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

19%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)

80%

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.27 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.89

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.33 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more

63%

level

22%

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

15%

AZ Alkmaar at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 83% of AZ Alkmaar’s matches
65% of AZ Alkmaar’s matches go over 2.5 goals
38% of AZ Alkmaar’s goals come after the 75th minute
36% of Olympiakos Piraeus’s goals come after the 75th minute
AZ Alkmaar and Olympiakos Piraeus have never met before
28% of AZ Alkmaar’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Alkmaar

DLWD

Piraeus

LWDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff