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AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen — Eredivisie 2018

AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen
12/6/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 10AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

AZ Alkmaar46%
×Draw23%
NEC Nijmegen31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ Alkmaar
1.73
NEC Nijmegen
1.38

AZ Alkmaar creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar
1.72
NEC Nijmegen
1.36

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar
1.39
NEC Nijmegen
1.74

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.28scores more
NEC Nijmegen+0.24scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

NEC Nijmegen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw
69%
AZ Alkmaar or NEC Nijmegen
77%
Draw or NEC Nijmegen
54%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
24%
NEC Nijmegen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
82%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
52%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
25%
NEC Nijmegen 1+ goals
75%
NEC Nijmegen 2+ goals
40%
NEC Nijmegen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
60%
NEC Nijmegen (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.39 · 17 matches

NEC Nijmegen away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.74 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.72 + NEC Nijmegen defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.73

NEC Nijmegen attack 1.36 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more
46%
level
23%
NEC Nijmegen scores more
31%

AZ Alkmaar at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: AZ Alkmaar 1–2 NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1 in Eredivisie on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar.