Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AZ Alkmaar vs Genk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
Preview
16:30
Genk
Genk
7/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
50%
Genk
model favours
30%20%50%

AZ Alkmaar are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
76%
over 2.5 goals
74%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

AZ Alkmaar30%
×Draw20%
Genk50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ Alkmaar
1.72
Genk
2.27

Genk creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar
2.44
Genk
3.43

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar
1.11
Genk
1.00

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.00on par
Genk+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Genk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw
50%
AZ Alkmaar or Genk
80%
Draw or Genk
70%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
14%
Genk wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
82%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
51%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
25%
Genk 1+ goals
90%
Genk 2+ goals
66%
Genk 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
37%
Genk (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Genk away — creates 3.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 2.44 + Genk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Genk attack 3.43 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more
30%
level
20%
Genk scores more
50%

Genk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • AZ Alkmaar score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 84% of AZ Alkmaar’s matches
  • Genk score first in only 30% of matches
  • 68% of AZ Alkmaar’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 29% of AZ Alkmaar’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • 36% of AZ Alkmaar’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Alkmaar
WDDD
Genk
WLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AZ Alkmaar vs Genk — Match Preview

AZ Alkmaar face Genk on July 22, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.