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AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax — Eredivisie 2018

AZ Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ajax
Ajax
2/25/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 23AFAS Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

AZ Alkmaar48%
×Draw23%
Ajax29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AZ Alkmaar
1.80
Ajax
1.35

AZ Alkmaar creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

AZ Alkmaar
1.72
Ajax
1.32

allows per match

AZ Alkmaar
1.39
Ajax
1.88

finishing

AZ Alkmaar+0.28scores more
Ajax+0.31scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AZ Alkmaar ↓

Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

AZ Alkmaar or draw
71%
AZ Alkmaar or Ajax
77%
Draw or Ajax
52%

Winning margin

AZ Alkmaar wins by 2+
26%
Ajax wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AZ Alkmaar 1+ goals
83%
AZ Alkmaar 2+ goals
54%
AZ Alkmaar 3+ goals
27%
Ajax 1+ goals
74%
Ajax 2+ goals
39%
Ajax 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

AZ Alkmaar (draw refunded)
62%
Ajax (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AZ Alkmaar at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.39 · 17 matches

Ajax away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AZ Alkmaar attack 1.72 + Ajax defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.80

Ajax attack 1.32 + AZ Alkmaar defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AZ Alkmaar scores more
48%
level
23%
Ajax scores more
29%

AZ Alkmaar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AZ Alkmaar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Ajax

AZ Alkmaar beat Ajax 2-0 in Eredivisie on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at AFAS Stadion in Alkmaar.