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Ayutthaya FC vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
FT
3 – 4
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
8/11/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 25Ayutthaya Stadium (Ayutthaya)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Ayutthaya FC42%
×Draw25%
Lampang FC33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayutthaya FC
1.54
Lampang FC
1.34

Ayutthaya FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 92 away

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.56
Lampang FC
1.43

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.26
Lampang FC
1.53

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw
67%
Ayutthaya FC or Lampang FC
75%
Draw or Lampang FC
58%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
21%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
79%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
45%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
20%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
74%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
39%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
56%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.53 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.56 + Lampang FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Lampang FC attack 1.43 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more
42%
level
25%
Lampang FC scores more
33%

Ayutthaya FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Ayutthaya FC 3–4 Lampang FC

Lampang FC beat Ayutthaya FC 4-3 in Thai League 2 on August 11, 2019.

The match was played at Ayutthaya Stadium (Ayutthaya).