Ayr Utd 1–2 ST Johnstone: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Ayr Utd

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

ST Johnstone

A. Drinan 4'

C. Hendry 27'

A. Muirhead 18' (OG)

2/8/2020

FA Cup · 5th RoundSomerset Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ayr Utd34%

×Draw32%

ST Johnstone34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayr UtdExpected goals in this matchST Johnstone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

Ayr Utd

0.95

ST Johnstone

0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

1.30

creates per match

1.20

0.70

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Ayr Utd

1.30

ST Johnstone

1.20

allows per match

Ayr Utd

0.70

ST Johnstone

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

ST Johnstone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

ST Johnstone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw

66%

Ayr Utd or ST Johnstone

68%

Draw or ST Johnstone

66%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

12%

ST Johnstone wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

61%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

25%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

7%

ST Johnstone 1+ goals

61%

ST Johnstone 2+ goals

25%

ST Johnstone 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

50%

ST Johnstone (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

ST Johnstone away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 1.30 + ST Johnstone defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.95

ST Johnstone attack 1.20 + Ayr Utd defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Ayr Utd scores more

34%

level

32%

ST Johnstone scores more

34%

Ayr Utd at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

A. Drinan↳ G. Gillespie

18'

A. MuirheadOwn goal

23'

A. Muirhead

26'

A. Muirhead

27'

C. Hendry↳ D. Wright

28'

S. Roscoe← L. McCowan

54'

S. Tiffoney← M. Kerr

58'

G. Gillespie

68'

M. Moffat← A. Forrest

78'

C. Kane← C. Hendry

85'

I. Jones← S. May

Ayr

ST

1

24

4

15

21

26

10

7

A

Wright

18

McCann

14

▼

May

22

⚽

▼

Hendry

1

Doohan

2

🥅

Muirhead

3

Harvie

14

Houston

4

▼

Kerr

28

A

Gillespie

15

Bell

10

▼

Forrest

30

Kelly

11

▼

McCowan

16

⚽

Drinan

Manager: M. Kerr

28'▲S. Roscoe←▼L. McCowan

54'▲S. Tiffoney←▼M. Kerr

68'▲M. Moffat←▼A. Forrest

Ayr Utd substitutes

5Roscoe12Tiffoney7Moffat22McKenzie27Smith8Malley19Hare-Reid

Manager: T. Wright

78'▲C. Kane←▼C. Hendry

85'▲I. Jones←▼S. May

ST Johnstone substitutes

9Kane20Jones3Tanser23Gordon19Holt12Parish16Butcher