Ayr Utd 3–2 Queen's Park: Result & Stats

Ayr Utd

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Queen's Park

A. Forrest 88'

D. McDaid 79'

C. Moore 24' (pen)

C. Reid 48' (OG)

R. Leitch 42'

12/9/2017

League #183 · Round 16Somerset Park (Ayr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ayr Utd49%

×Draw22%

Queen's Park29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayr UtdExpected goals in this matchQueen's Park

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.46

Ayr Utd

1.93

Queen's Park

1.46

Ayr Utd creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

2.67

creates per match

1.25

1.67

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Ayr Utd

2.67

Queen's Park

1.25

allows per match

Ayr Utd

1.67

Queen's Park

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayr Utd+0.00on par

Queen's Park+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayr Utd ↓

Queen's Park →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ayr Utd or draw

71%

Ayr Utd or Queen's Park

78%

Draw or Queen's Park

51%

Winning margin

Ayr Utd wins by 2+

27%

Queen's Park wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ayr Utd 1+ goals

85%

Ayr Utd 2+ goals

57%

Ayr Utd 3+ goals

30%

Queen's Park 1+ goals

77%

Queen's Park 2+ goals

43%

Queen's Park 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Ayr Utd (draw refunded)

62%

Queen's Park (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayr Utd at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Queen's Park away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayr Utd attack 2.67 + Queen's Park defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.93

Queen's Park attack 1.25 + Ayr Utd defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ayr Utd scores more

49%

level

22%

Queen's Park scores more

29%

Ayr Utd at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ayr Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

C. MoorePenalty

42'

R. Leitch

48'

C. ReidOwn goal

52'

A. Forrest← C. McGuffie

52'

P. Boyle← C. Reid

64'

78'

79'

83'

88'

Ayr

Queen's

▼

⚽

▼

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Moore

Manager: I. McCall

52'▲A. Forrest←▼C. McGuffie

52'▲P. Boyle←▼C. Reid

64'▲D. McDaid←▼C. Moore

Ayr Utd substitutes

ForrestBoyleMcDaidHiltonAvciDochertyFaulds

Manager: G. MacPherson

78'▲T. Orr←▼W. Mortimer

83'▲C. Duff←▼D. Docherty

Queen's Park substitutes

OrrDuffCumminsGreenMaclennanGibsonManderson