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Ayema vs JAC — Championnat National 2019

Ayema
Ayema
PST
00:00
JAC
JAC
6/14/2020Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 30Stade Municipal de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ayema53%
×Draw29%
JAC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayema
1.31
JAC
0.62

Ayema creates 111% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 43 away

creates per match

Ayema
1.27
JAC
0.63

allows per match

Ayema
0.61
JAC
1.35

finishing

Ayema+0.00on par
JAC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayema ↓

JAC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ayema or draw
82%
Ayema or JAC
71%
Draw or JAC
47%

Winning margin

Ayema wins by 2+
26%
JAC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ayema 1+ goals
73%
Ayema 2+ goals
38%
Ayema 3+ goals
14%
JAC 1+ goals
46%
JAC 2+ goals
13%
JAC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ayema (draw refunded)
75%
JAC (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayema at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.61 · 119 matches

JAC away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.35 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayema attack 1.27 + JAC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

JAC attack 0.63 + Ayema defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ayema scores more
53%
level
29%
JAC scores more
18%

Ayema at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ayema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ayema host JAC

June 14, 2020: Ayema take on JAC in Championnat National. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ayema host JAC at Stade Municipal de Missérété.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.