Ayema 3–0 Bani Gansè: Result & Stats

Ayema

FT

3 – 0

Bani Gansè

4/12/2023

Championnat National · Championship Round - 11Stade Aplahoué

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Ayema47%

×Draw31%

Bani Gansè22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AyemaExpected goals in this matchBani Gansè

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.69

Ayema

1.16

Bani Gansè

0.69

Ayema creates 68% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 74 away

1.25

creates per match

0.74

0.63

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Ayema

1.25

Bani Gansè

0.74

allows per match

Ayema

0.63

Bani Gansè

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayema+0.00on par

Bani Gansè+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayema ↓

Bani Gansè →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ayema or draw

78%

Ayema or Bani Gansè

69%

Draw or Bani Gansè

53%

Winning margin

Ayema wins by 2+

20%

Bani Gansè wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ayema 1+ goals

69%

Ayema 2+ goals

32%

Ayema 3+ goals

11%

Bani Gansè 1+ goals

50%

Bani Gansè 2+ goals

15%

Bani Gansè 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ayema (draw refunded)

68%

Bani Gansè (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayema at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.63 · 122 matches

Bani Gansè away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.07 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayema attack 1.25 + Bani Gansè defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Bani Gansè attack 0.74 + Ayema defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ayema scores more

47%

level

31%

Bani Gansè scores more

22%

Ayema at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ayema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff