Ayacucho FC 2–1 UTC Cajamarca: Result & Stats

Ayacucho FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

UTC Cajamarca

V. Rossel 82'

M. Montes 42' (pen)

J. Collazos 70'

3/24/2018

Primera División · Torneo de Verano - 7Estadio Ciudad de Cumaná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Ayacucho FC49%

×Draw25%

UTC Cajamarca26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayacucho FCExpected goals in this matchUTC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.07

Ayacucho FC

1.58

UTC Cajamarca

1.07

Ayacucho FC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 144 away

1.54

creates per match

0.91

1.24

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Ayacucho FC

1.54

UTC Cajamarca

0.91

allows per match

Ayacucho FC

1.24

UTC Cajamarca

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayacucho FC ↓

UTC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ayacucho FC or draw

74%

Ayacucho FC or UTC Cajamarca

75%

Draw or UTC Cajamarca

51%

Winning margin

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

25%

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

79%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

47%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

21%

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

66%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

29%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

66%

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayacucho FC attack 1.54 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ayacucho FC scores more

49%

level

25%

UTC Cajamarca scores more

26%

Ayacucho FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Vergara

UTC Cajamarca · M

8.0

Match Events

41'

Brian Flores

42'

M. MontesPenalty

60'

K. Sandoval← T. Carranza

64'

A. Ugarriza← J. Murrugarra

67'

J. Gonzáles Vigil← S. Morales

70'

J. Collazos↳ J. Vergara

73'

V. Rossel← R. Ardiles

74'

C. Quevedo← J. Collazos

77'

Brayan Gustavo Arana

78'

B. Ubierna← J. Vergara

82'

V. Rossel

83'

Victor Rossel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AyacuchoUTC

Overview

60%Possession40%

13Total Shots16

5Corners3

10Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots16

5On Target3

4Off Target10

4Blocked3

4Inside Box7

9Outside Box9

Passing

60%Possession40%

474Total Passes313

406Accurate Passes248

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2