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Awassa Kenema vs Ethiopia Bunna — Premier League 2019

Awassa Kenema
Awassa Kenema
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
1/5/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Awassa Kenema36%
×Draw29%
Ethiopia Bunna35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Awassa Kenema
1.13
Ethiopia Bunna
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 102 away

creates per match

Awassa Kenema
1.23
Ethiopia Bunna
1.11

allows per match

Awassa Kenema
1.09
Ethiopia Bunna
1.03

finishing

Awassa Kenema+0.00on par
Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Awassa Kenema ↓

Ethiopia Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Awassa Kenema or draw
65%
Awassa Kenema or Ethiopia Bunna
71%
Draw or Ethiopia Bunna
64%

Winning margin

Awassa Kenema wins by 2+
15%
Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Awassa Kenema 1+ goals
68%
Awassa Kenema 2+ goals
31%
Awassa Kenema 3+ goals
11%
Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
67%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
30%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Awassa Kenema (draw refunded)
51%
Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Awassa Kenema at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Ethiopia Bunna away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Awassa Kenema attack 1.23 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.11 + Awassa Kenema defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Awassa Kenema scores more
36%
level
29%
Ethiopia Bunna scores more
35%

Awassa Kenema at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Awassa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Awassa Kenema vs Ethiopia Bunna

Ethiopia Bunna beat Awassa Kenema 2-1 in Premier League on January 5, 2024.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.