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Avrankou Omnisport vs AS Sobemap — Championnat National 2019

Avrankou Omnisport
Avrankou Omnisport
FT
0 – 1
AS Sobemap
AS Sobemap
2/7/2021Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 3Centre d’excellence de football de Missérété

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Avrankou Omnisport36%
×Draw31%
AS Sobemap34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avrankou Omnisport
1.03
AS Sobemap
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 110 away

creates per match

Avrankou Omnisport
1.07
AS Sobemap
0.94

allows per match

Avrankou Omnisport
1.04
AS Sobemap
0.99

finishing

Avrankou Omnisport+0.00on par
AS Sobemap+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avrankou Omnisport ↓

AS Sobemap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Avrankou Omnisport or draw
66%
Avrankou Omnisport or AS Sobemap
69%
Draw or AS Sobemap
64%

Winning margin

Avrankou Omnisport wins by 2+
14%
AS Sobemap wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Avrankou Omnisport 1+ goals
64%
Avrankou Omnisport 2+ goals
28%
Avrankou Omnisport 3+ goals
9%
AS Sobemap 1+ goals
63%
AS Sobemap 2+ goals
26%
AS Sobemap 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Avrankou Omnisport (draw refunded)
52%
AS Sobemap (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avrankou Omnisport at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 73 matches

AS Sobemap away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.99 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avrankou Omnisport attack 1.07 + AS Sobemap defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.03

AS Sobemap attack 0.94 + Avrankou Omnisport defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Avrankou Omnisport scores more
36%
level
31%
AS Sobemap scores more
34%

Avrankou Omnisport at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Avrankou Omnisport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Avrankou Omnisport 0 – 1 AS Sobemap

AS Sobemap beat Avrankou Omnisport 1-0 in Championnat National on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Centre d’excellence de football de Missérété in Akpro-Missérété.