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Avondale vs South Melbourne — Victoria NPL 2026

Avondale
Avondale
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
South Melbourne
South Melbourne
8/21/2022Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 26Avenger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Avondale53%
×Draw22%
South Melbourne25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avondale
1.93
South Melbourne
1.25

Avondale creates 54% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 89 away

creates per match

Avondale
2.71
South Melbourne
1.49

allows per match

Avondale
1.02
South Melbourne
1.15

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par
South Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

South Melbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Avondale or draw
75%
Avondale or South Melbourne
78%
Draw or South Melbourne
47%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+
31%
South Melbourne wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals
85%
Avondale 2+ goals
57%
Avondale 3+ goals
30%
South Melbourne 1+ goals
71%
South Melbourne 2+ goals
36%
South Melbourne 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)
68%
South Melbourne (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

South Melbourne away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.15 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 2.71 + South Melbourne defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.93

South Melbourne attack 1.49 + Avondale defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Avondale scores more
53%
level
22%
South Melbourne scores more
25%

Avondale at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avondale vs South Melbourne

South Melbourne beat Avondale 1-0 in Victoria NPL on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Avenger Park in Melbourne.