Avondale 4–2 Oakleigh Cannons: Result & Stats

Avondale

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Oakleigh Cannons

4/29/2023

Victoria NPL · Round 11Avenger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Avondale49%

×Draw22%

Oakleigh Cannons29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvondaleExpected goals in this matchOakleigh Cannons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.44

Avondale

1.91

Oakleigh Cannons

1.44

Avondale creates 33% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 87 away

2.71

creates per match

1.85

1.02

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Avondale

2.71

Oakleigh Cannons

1.85

allows per match

Avondale

1.02

Oakleigh Cannons

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par

Oakleigh Cannons+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Oakleigh Cannons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Avondale or draw

71%

Avondale or Oakleigh Cannons

78%

Draw or Oakleigh Cannons

51%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+

27%

Oakleigh Cannons wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals

85%

Avondale 2+ goals

57%

Avondale 3+ goals

30%

Oakleigh Cannons 1+ goals

76%

Oakleigh Cannons 2+ goals

42%

Oakleigh Cannons 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)

62%

Oakleigh Cannons (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Oakleigh Cannons away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 2.71 + Oakleigh Cannons defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.91

Oakleigh Cannons attack 1.85 + Avondale defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Avondale scores more

49%

level

22%

Oakleigh Cannons scores more

29%

Avondale at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff