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Avondale vs Dandenong Thunder — Victoria NPL 2026

Avondale
Avondale
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dandenong Thunder
Dandenong Thunder
7/8/2023Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 21Epsom Huntly Recreation Reserve - Pitch 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Avondale60%
×Draw20%
Dandenong Thunder20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avondale
2.27
Dandenong Thunder
1.23

Avondale creates 85% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 87 away

creates per match

Avondale
2.71
Dandenong Thunder
1.44

allows per match

Avondale
1.02
Dandenong Thunder
1.83

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par
Dandenong Thunder+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Dandenong Thunder →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Avondale or draw
80%
Avondale or Dandenong Thunder
80%
Draw or Dandenong Thunder
40%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+
38%
Dandenong Thunder wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals
90%
Avondale 2+ goals
66%
Avondale 3+ goals
39%
Dandenong Thunder 1+ goals
71%
Dandenong Thunder 2+ goals
35%
Dandenong Thunder 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)
75%
Dandenong Thunder (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Dandenong Thunder away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.83 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 2.71 + Dandenong Thunder defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.27

Dandenong Thunder attack 1.44 + Avondale defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Avondale scores more
60%
level
20%
Dandenong Thunder scores more
20%

Avondale at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Avondale 5–1 Dandenong Thunder

Avondale beat Dandenong Thunder 5-1 in Victoria NPL on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Epsom Huntly Recreation Reserve - Pitch 5 in Huntly.