Avondale 4–3 Dandenong City: Result & Stats

Avondale

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Dandenong City

2/10/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 1Avenger Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Avondale60%

×Draw20%

Dandenong City20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvondaleExpected goals in this matchDandenong City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.19

Avondale

2.19

Dandenong City

1.19

Avondale creates 84% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

2.71

creates per match

1.35

1.02

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Avondale

2.71

Dandenong City

1.35

allows per match

Avondale

1.02

Dandenong City

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avondale+0.00on par

Dandenong City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avondale ↓

Dandenong City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Avondale or draw

80%

Avondale or Dandenong City

80%

Draw or Dandenong City

40%

Winning margin

Avondale wins by 2+

37%

Dandenong City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Avondale 1+ goals

89%

Avondale 2+ goals

64%

Avondale 3+ goals

37%

Dandenong City 1+ goals

70%

Dandenong City 2+ goals

33%

Dandenong City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Avondale (draw refunded)

75%

Dandenong City (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avondale at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Dandenong City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avondale attack 2.71 + Dandenong City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.19

Dandenong City attack 1.35 + Avondale defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Avondale scores more

60%

level

20%

Dandenong City scores more

20%

Avondale at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Avondale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff