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Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama FC — J2 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
9/12/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 26Level-5 stadium (Fukuoka)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka34%
×Draw29%
Yokohama FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.11
Yokohama FC
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 89 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.22
Yokohama FC
1.38

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
0.97
Yokohama FC
1.00

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
63%
Avispa Fukuoka or Yokohama FC
71%
Draw or Yokohama FC
66%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
14%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
67%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
30%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
10%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
69%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
33%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
48%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.97 · 64 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.22 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Yokohama FC attack 1.38 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
34%
level
29%
Yokohama FC scores more
37%

Yokohama FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Avispa Fukuoka 0–0 Yokohama FC

Avispa Fukuoka and Yokohama FC drew 0-0 in J2 League on September 12, 2018.

The match was played at Level-5 stadium (Fukuoka).