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Avispa Fukuoka vs Vissel Kobe — J1 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
Preview
10:00
Vissel Kobe
Vissel Kobe
8/8/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 1Best Denki Stadium
Big match
38%
Vissel Kobe
model favours
35%27%38%

Vissel Kobe score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka35%
×Draw27%
Vissel Kobe38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.20
Vissel Kobe
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 146 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.03
Vissel Kobe
1.42

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.09
Vissel Kobe
1.36

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Vissel Kobe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Vissel Kobe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
62%
Avispa Fukuoka or Vissel Kobe
73%
Draw or Vissel Kobe
65%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
15%
Vissel Kobe wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
70%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
34%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
12%
Vissel Kobe 1+ goals
71%
Vissel Kobe 2+ goals
36%
Vissel Kobe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
48%
Vissel Kobe (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

Vissel Kobe away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.36 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.03 + Vissel Kobe defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Vissel Kobe attack 1.42 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
35%
level
27%
Vissel Kobe scores more
38%

Vissel Kobe at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vissel Kobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Vissel Kobe have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Style contrast — Avispa Fukuoka play Direct / counter-attacking, Vissel Kobe Attack-heavy
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged just 1.3 goals
  • Vissel Kobe fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Avispa Fukuoka
Direct / counter-attacking
Vissel Kobe
Attack-heavy
44%Possession52%
71%Pass accuracy74%
11.8Shots13.9
1.16xGBiggest gap1.76
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Avispa FukuokaVissel Kobe

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Avispa Fukuoka
2
Draws
7
Vissel Kobe
Avg goals: 1.3BTTS: 10%
0–11–20–01–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Fukuoka
WLWDL
Kobe
DLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Avispa Fukuoka vs Vissel Kobe — Match Preview

Avispa Fukuoka face Vissel Kobe on August 8, 2026 in this J1 League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Avispa Fukuoka host Vissel Kobe at Best Denki Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.