Avilés Stadium 1–3 Caudal: Result & Stats

Avilés Stadium

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Caudal

10/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Campo Muro de Zaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Avilés Stadium25%

×Draw29%

Caudal46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avilés StadiumExpected goals in this matchCaudal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.27

Avilés Stadium

0.85

Caudal

1.27

Caudal creates 49% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 113 away

0.74

creates per match

1.35

1.20

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Avilés Stadium

0.74

Caudal

1.35

allows per match

Avilés Stadium

1.20

Caudal

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Caudal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avilés Stadium ↓

Caudal →

0–012%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Avilés Stadium or draw

54%

Avilés Stadium or Caudal

71%

Draw or Caudal

75%

Winning margin

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+

Caudal wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals

57%

Avilés Stadium 2+ goals

21%

Avilés Stadium 3+ goals

Caudal 1+ goals

72%

Caudal 2+ goals

36%

Caudal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)

35%

Caudal (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Avilés Stadium at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Caudal away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Avilés Stadium attack 0.74 + Caudal defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Caudal attack 1.35 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avilés Stadium scores more

25%

level

29%

Caudal scores more

46%

Caudal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff