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Avarta vs Brønshøj — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Avarta
Avarta
FT
0 – 1
Brønshøj
Brønshøj
10/11/20152nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 10Espelundens Idrætsanlæg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Avarta46%
×Draw29%
Brønshøj25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avarta
1.27
Brønshøj
0.87

Avarta creates 46% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

Avarta
1.07
Brønshøj
0.88

allows per match

Avarta
0.86
Brønshøj
1.47

finishing

Avarta+0.00on par
Brønshøj+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avarta ↓

Brønshøj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Avarta or draw
75%
Avarta or Brønshøj
71%
Draw or Brønshøj
54%

Winning margin

Avarta wins by 2+
21%
Brønshøj wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Avarta 1+ goals
72%
Avarta 2+ goals
36%
Avarta 3+ goals
14%
Brønshøj 1+ goals
58%
Brønshøj 2+ goals
22%
Brønshøj 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Avarta (draw refunded)
64%
Brønshøj (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avarta at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Brønshøj away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avarta attack 1.07 + Brønshøj defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Brønshøj attack 0.88 + Avarta defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avarta scores more
46%
level
29%
Brønshøj scores more
25%

Avarta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avarta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Avarta 0–1 Brønshøj

Brønshøj beat Avarta 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 11, 2015.

The match was played at Espelundens Idrætsanlæg in Rødovre.