Avai 5–2 Juventude: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avai

FT

5 – 2

HT: 4 – 2

Juventude

Jonathan 90'

Edílson 45+1' (pen)

João Lucas 29'

Getúlio 27'

Rômulo 12'

Matheuzinho 37', 21'

1/19/2021

Serie B · Round 36Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Avai52%

×Draw27%

Juventude21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchJuventude

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.80

Avai

1.44

Juventude

0.80

Avai creates 80% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

1.34

creates per match

0.70

0.91

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Avai

1.34

Juventude

0.70

allows per match

Avai

0.91

Juventude

1.53

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Avai-0.10scores less

Juventude+0.18scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Juventude →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Avai or draw

79%

Avai or Juventude

73%

Draw or Juventude

48%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

26%

Juventude wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

76%

Avai 2+ goals

42%

Avai 3+ goals

18%

Juventude 1+ goals

55%

Juventude 2+ goals

19%

Juventude 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

71%

Juventude (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 21 matches

Juventude away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.53 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.34 + Juventude defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Juventude attack 0.70 + Avai defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Avai scores more

52%

level

27%

Juventude scores more

21%

Avai at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

Rômulo

Avai · M

9.3

Match Events

12'

Rômulo↳ Vinícius Leite

21'

Matheuzinho↳ Rafael Grampola

22'

João Paulo

27'

Getúlio↳ Vinícius Leite

29'

João Lucas↳ Rômulo

37'

Matheuzinho↳ Igor Inocêncio

45+1'

EdílsonPenalty

46'

Roberto← Rogerio

46'

Gabriel Bispo← João Paulo

63'

Leandrinho← Getúlio

73'

Everton← Gustavo Bochecha

76'

Igor

78'

Helder Santos← Eltinho

83'

Jonathan← Renato

83'

Bruno Silva← Vinícius Leite

83'

Iury← Edílson

85'

Tarta← Igor Inocêncio

87'

Rafael Pereira← João Lucas

89'

Tartá

90'

Jonathan↳ Rômulo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiJuventude

Overview

37%Possession63%

17Total Shots14

3Corners7

18Fouls20

Shots

17Total Shots14

6On Target5

8Off Target7

3Blocked2

12Inside Box9

5Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

352Total Passes561

273Accurate Passes477

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls20

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1