Auxerre 1–1 Arles: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Auxerre

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arles

I. Jelen 84'

D. N'Diaye 65'

2/19/2011

Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps (Auxerre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Auxerre58%

×Draw24%

Arles18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuxerreExpected goals in this matchArles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.78

Auxerre

1.65

Arles

0.78

Auxerre creates 112% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 19 away

1.26

creates per match

0.37

1.19

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Auxerre

1.26

Arles

0.37

allows per match

Auxerre

1.19

Arles

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auxerre+0.00on par

Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auxerre ↓

Arles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Auxerre or draw

82%

Auxerre or Arles

76%

Draw or Arles

42%

Winning margin

Auxerre wins by 2+

32%

Arles wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Auxerre 1+ goals

81%

Auxerre 2+ goals

49%

Auxerre 3+ goals

23%

Arles 1+ goals

54%

Arles 2+ goals

18%

Arles 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Auxerre (draw refunded)

77%

Arles (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auxerre at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 89 matches

Arles away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auxerre attack 1.26 + Arles defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.65

Arles attack 0.37 + Auxerre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Auxerre scores more

58%

level

24%

Arles scores more

18%

Auxerre at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Auxerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

I. Jelen← F. Sammaritano

64'

D. N'Diaye← K. Ghilas

65'

D. N'Diaye↳ K. Diawara

75'

T. Ayasse← R. Rocchi

76'

A. Le Tallec← B. Itoua Onanga

83'

Johnathan← K. Diawara

84'

I. Jelen↳ Jo-Gook Jung

Auxerre

Arles

1

4

3

15

26

5

22

28

7

▼

Rocchi

19

A

▼

Diawara

10

▼

1

6

23

2

31

▼

5

9

17

15

▼

Sammarita

11

Quercia

24

A

Jung

46'▲I. Jelen←▼F. Sammaritano

76'▲A. Le Tallec←▼B. Itoua Onanga

Auxerre substitutes

22Jelen8Tallec40Pontdemé3Boly20Sidibé26Acapandié33Szczepaniak

64'▲D. N'Diaye←▼K. Ghilas

75'▲T. Ayasse←▼R. Rocchi

83'▲Johnathan←▼K. Diawara

Arles substitutes

27N'Diaye17Ayasse25Johnathan30Yattara8Piocelle24Corrèze20Cabella

Ligue 1: Auxerre 1–1 Arles

Auxerre and Arles drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on February 19, 2011.

Goals: D. N'Diaye (65'), I. Jelen (84').

The match was played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps (Auxerre).

Auxerre vs Arles — Ligue 1 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 1: Auxerre 1–1 Arles