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Austria XIII vs ASV 13 — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Austria XIII
Austria XIII
CANC
22:00
ASV 13
ASV 13
3/28/2021Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 19Sportplatz Kinkplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Austria XIII64%
×Draw18%
ASV 1318%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria XIII
2.56
ASV 13
1.29

Austria XIII creates 98% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 59 away

creates per match

Austria XIII
2.14
ASV 13
1.25

allows per match

Austria XIII
1.32
ASV 13
2.98

finishing

Austria XIII+0.00on par
ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria XIII ↓

ASV 13 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Austria XIII or draw
82%
Austria XIII or ASV 13
82%
Draw or ASV 13
36%

Winning margin

Austria XIII wins by 2+
43%
ASV 13 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Austria XIII 1+ goals
92%
Austria XIII 2+ goals
72%
Austria XIII 3+ goals
46%
ASV 13 1+ goals
72%
ASV 13 2+ goals
37%
ASV 13 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Austria XIII (draw refunded)
78%
ASV 13 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria XIII at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria XIII attack 2.14 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.56

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + Austria XIII defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Austria XIII scores more
64%
level
18%
ASV 13 scores more
18%

Austria XIII at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Austria XIII will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Austria XIII face ASV 13 (Landesliga - Wien)

Landesliga - Wien returns with Austria XIII hosting ASV 13. Match starts March 28, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Austria XIII host ASV 13 at Sportplatz Kinkplatz.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.