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Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lask Linz
Lask Linz
12/3/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 16Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Austria Vienna37%
×Draw25%
Lask Linz37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Vienna
1.40
Lask Linz
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 130 away

creates per match

Austria Vienna
1.58
Lask Linz
1.52

allows per match

Austria Vienna
1.27
Lask Linz
1.22

finishing

Austria Vienna+0.00on par
Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Vienna ↓

Lask Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Austria Vienna or draw
63%
Austria Vienna or Lask Linz
75%
Draw or Lask Linz
63%

Winning margin

Austria Vienna wins by 2+
17%
Lask Linz wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Austria Vienna 1+ goals
75%
Austria Vienna 2+ goals
41%
Austria Vienna 3+ goals
17%
Lask Linz 1+ goals
75%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
41%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)
50%
Lask Linz (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Vienna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 133 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Vienna attack 1.58 + Lask Linz defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Lask Linz attack 1.52 + Austria Vienna defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Austria Vienna scores more
37%
level
25%
Lask Linz scores more
37%

Austria Vienna at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Austria Vienna 0–0 Lask Linz

Austria Vienna and Lask Linz drew 0-0 in Bundesliga on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Generali Arena in Wien.