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Bradford vs Burton Albion — League Two 2018

Bradford
Bradford
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
1/21/2012League TwoLeague Two · Round 27Coral Windows Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bradford36%
×Draw29%
Burton Albion34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bradford
1.10
Burton Albion
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 141 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bradford
1.37
Burton Albion
1.17

allows per match

Bradford
0.96
Burton Albion
0.83

finishing

Bradford+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bradford or draw
66%
Bradford or Burton Albion
71%
Draw or Burton Albion
64%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+
15%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals
67%
Bradford 2+ goals
30%
Bradford 3+ goals
10%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
65%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
29%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)
51%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.96 · 141 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.37 + Burton Albion defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.10

Burton Albion attack 1.17 + Bradford defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bradford scores more
36%
level
29%
Burton Albion scores more
34%

Bradford at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Bradford 1–1 Burton Albion

Bradford and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in League Two on January 21, 2012.

The match was played at Coral Windows Stadium.