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Austria Klagenfurt vs St. Michael Bleiburg — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
FT
0 – 1
St. Michael Bleiburg
St. Michael Bleiburg
8/18/2019Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 4Sportplatz KAC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt42%
×Draw24%
St. Michael Bleiburg34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt
1.63
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.44

Austria Klagenfurt creates 13% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 31 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.24
St. Michael Bleiburg
1.16

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.72
St. Michael Bleiburg
2.03

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par
St. Michael Bleiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

St. Michael Bleiburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw
66%
Austria Klagenfurt or St. Michael Bleiburg
76%
Draw or St. Michael Bleiburg
58%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
21%
St. Michael Bleiburg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
80%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
48%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
22%
St. Michael Bleiburg 1+ goals
76%
St. Michael Bleiburg 2+ goals
42%
St. Michael Bleiburg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
55%
St. Michael Bleiburg (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

St. Michael Bleiburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.24 + St. Michael Bleiburg defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.63

St. Michael Bleiburg attack 1.16 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more
42%
level
24%
St. Michael Bleiburg scores more
34%

Austria Klagenfurt at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Klagenfurt vs St. Michael Bleiburg

St. Michael Bleiburg beat Austria Klagenfurt 1-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz KAC in Klagenfurt.