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Austria Klagenfurt vs Kraig — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
CANC
00:00
Kraig
Kraig
3/29/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 18Sportplatz KAC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt45%
×Draw24%
Kraig31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt
1.71
Kraig
1.39

Austria Klagenfurt creates 23% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 63 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.24
Kraig
1.06

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.72
Kraig
2.19

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Kraig+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

Kraig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw
69%
Austria Klagenfurt or Kraig
76%
Draw or Kraig
55%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
24%
Kraig wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
82%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
51%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
24%
Kraig 1+ goals
75%
Kraig 2+ goals
40%
Kraig 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
59%
Kraig (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Kraig away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.24 + Kraig defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kraig attack 1.06 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more
45%
level
24%
Kraig scores more
31%

Austria Klagenfurt at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Austria Klagenfurt host Kraig

March 29, 2020: Austria Klagenfurt take on Kraig in Landesliga - Karnten. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Austria Klagenfurt host Kraig at Sportplatz KAC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.