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Barki Tajik vs Regar-TadAZ — Vysshaya Liga 2012

Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
FT
0 – 1
Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
8/31/2012Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 14Stadion Aeroflot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Barki Tajik34%
×Draw30%
Regar-TadAZ35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barki Tajik
1.01
Regar-TadAZ
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 42 away

creates per match

Barki Tajik
1.04
Regar-TadAZ
1.10

allows per match

Barki Tajik
0.96
Regar-TadAZ
0.98

finishing

Barki Tajik+0.00on par
Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barki Tajik ↓

Regar-TadAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Barki Tajik or draw
65%
Barki Tajik or Regar-TadAZ
70%
Draw or Regar-TadAZ
66%

Winning margin

Barki Tajik wins by 2+
13%
Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Barki Tajik 1+ goals
64%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
27%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
8%
Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
64%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
28%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
49%
Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barki Tajik at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.98 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barki Tajik attack 1.04 + Regar-TadAZ defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.01

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.10 + Barki Tajik defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Barki Tajik scores more
34%
level
30%
Regar-TadAZ scores more
35%

Regar-TadAZ at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barki Tajik vs Regar-TadAZ

Regar-TadAZ beat Barki Tajik 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on August 31, 2012.

The match was played at Stadion Aeroflot in Dushanbe.