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Austin II vs Sporting KC II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Austin II
Austin II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
8/26/2023MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 32Parmer Field at St. David’s Performance Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Austin II54%
×Draw21%
Sporting KC II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austin II
2.15
Sporting KC II
1.42

Austin II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 51 away

creates per match

Austin II
2.11
Sporting KC II
1.59

allows per match

Austin II
1.24
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Austin II+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin II ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Austin II or draw
75%
Austin II or Sporting KC II
79%
Draw or Sporting KC II
46%

Winning margin

Austin II wins by 2+
32%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Austin II 1+ goals
88%
Austin II 2+ goals
63%
Austin II 3+ goals
36%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
76%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
41%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Austin II (draw refunded)
68%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin II at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.24 · 37 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin II attack 2.11 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.15

Sporting KC II attack 1.59 + Austin II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Austin II scores more
54%
level
21%
Sporting KC II scores more
25%

Austin II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Austin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Austin II 1 – 2 Sporting KC II

Sporting KC II beat Austin II 2-1 in MLS Next Pro on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Parmer Field at St. David’s Performance Center in Austin, Texas.