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Aurrerá Ondarroa vs Basconia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Basconia
Basconia
12/8/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa28%
×Draw29%
Basconia43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.96
Basconia
1.25

Basconia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 95 away

creates per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.03
Basconia
1.34

allows per match

Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.17
Basconia
0.89

finishing

Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par
Basconia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurrerá Ondarroa ↓

Basconia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aurrerá Ondarroa or draw
57%
Aurrerá Ondarroa or Basconia
71%
Draw or Basconia
72%

Winning margin

Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
10%
Basconia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
62%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
25%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
7%
Basconia 1+ goals
71%
Basconia 2+ goals
36%
Basconia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
40%
Basconia (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurrerá Ondarroa at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.17 · 66 matches

Basconia away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.89 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 1.03 + Basconia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Basconia attack 1.34 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
28%
level
29%
Basconia scores more
43%

Basconia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Basconia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aurrerá Ondarroa vs Basconia

Aurrerá Ondarroa beat Basconia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de Zaldupe in Ondarroa.