Aurora 1–1 Santa Cruz: Result & Stats

Aurora

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Cruz

12/31/2020

Primera División · Round 26TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Aurora58%

×Draw22%

Santa Cruz20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuroraExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.05

Aurora

1.93

Santa Cruz

1.05

Aurora creates 84% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 83 away

1.60

creates per match

0.90

1.20

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Aurora

1.60

Santa Cruz

0.90

allows per match

Aurora

1.20

Santa Cruz

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aurora+0.00on par

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurora ↓

Santa Cruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Aurora or draw

80%

Aurora or Santa Cruz

78%

Draw or Santa Cruz

42%

Winning margin

Aurora wins by 2+

34%

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Aurora 1+ goals

85%

Aurora 2+ goals

57%

Aurora 3+ goals

30%

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

65%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

28%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Aurora (draw refunded)

74%

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurora at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 128 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.25 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurora attack 1.60 + Santa Cruz defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.93

Santa Cruz attack 0.90 + Aurora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Aurora scores more

58%

level

22%

Santa Cruz scores more

20%

Aurora at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Aurora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff