Aurora 4–1 Nacional Potosí: Result & Stats

Aurora

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Nacional Potosí

3/12/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Aurora48%

×Draw24%

Nacional Potosí28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuroraExpected goals in this matchNacional Potosí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.21

Aurora

1.67

Nacional Potosí

1.21

Aurora creates 38% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 131 away

1.60

creates per match

1.23

1.20

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Aurora

1.60

Nacional Potosí

1.23

allows per match

Aurora

1.20

Nacional Potosí

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aurora+0.00on par

Nacional Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurora ↓

Nacional Potosí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Aurora or draw

72%

Aurora or Nacional Potosí

76%

Draw or Nacional Potosí

52%

Winning margin

Aurora wins by 2+

25%

Nacional Potosí wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aurora 1+ goals

81%

Aurora 2+ goals

50%

Aurora 3+ goals

23%

Nacional Potosí 1+ goals

70%

Nacional Potosí 2+ goals

34%

Nacional Potosí 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aurora (draw refunded)

63%

Nacional Potosí (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurora at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 128 matches

Nacional Potosí away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurora attack 1.60 + Nacional Potosí defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.67

Nacional Potosí attack 1.23 + Aurora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aurora scores more

48%

level

24%

Nacional Potosí scores more

28%

Aurora at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aurora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff