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Aumund-Vegesack vs Brinkumer SV — League #749 2026

Aumund-Vegesack
Aumund-Vegesack
FT
2 – 2
Brinkumer SV
Brinkumer SV
9/5/2020League #749League #749 · Bremen - 1Stadion Vegesack

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Aumund-Vegesack48%
×Draw21%
Brinkumer SV32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aumund-Vegesack
2.19
Brinkumer SV
1.77

Aumund-Vegesack creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Aumund-Vegesack
2.17
Brinkumer SV
1.70

allows per match

Aumund-Vegesack
1.83
Brinkumer SV
2.20

finishing

Aumund-Vegesack+0.00on par
Brinkumer SV+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aumund-Vegesack ↓

Brinkumer SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Aumund-Vegesack or draw
68%
Aumund-Vegesack or Brinkumer SV
79%
Draw or Brinkumer SV
52%

Winning margin

Aumund-Vegesack wins by 2+
28%
Brinkumer SV wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Aumund-Vegesack 1+ goals
89%
Aumund-Vegesack 2+ goals
64%
Aumund-Vegesack 3+ goals
37%
Brinkumer SV 1+ goals
83%
Brinkumer SV 2+ goals
53%
Brinkumer SV 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Aumund-Vegesack (draw refunded)
60%
Brinkumer SV (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aumund-Vegesack at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Brinkumer SV away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aumund-Vegesack attack 2.17 + Brinkumer SV defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.19

Brinkumer SV attack 1.70 + Aumund-Vegesack defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aumund-Vegesack scores more
48%
level
21%
Brinkumer SV scores more
32%

Aumund-Vegesack at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aumund-Vegesack will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aumund-Vegesack vs Brinkumer SV

Aumund-Vegesack and Brinkumer SV drew 2-2 in League #749 on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Vegesack in Bremen.