Augsburg U19 4–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Augsburg U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

C. Lannert 85', 14'

T. Stowasser 84', 67'

F. Hut 63'

2/11/2017

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 17Paul-Renz-Sportanlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Augsburg U1955%

×Draw20%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Augsburg U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.60

Augsburg U19

2.38

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.60

Augsburg U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 59 away

2.16

creates per match

1.27

1.93

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Augsburg U19

2.16

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.27

allows per match

Augsburg U19

1.93

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Augsburg U19 or draw

74%

Augsburg U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

80%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

45%

Winning margin

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+

34%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Augsburg U19 1+ goals

91%

Augsburg U19 2+ goals

68%

Augsburg U19 3+ goals

42%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

80%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

47%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg U19 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.93 · 73 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg U19 attack 2.16 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.38

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + Augsburg U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Augsburg U19 scores more

55%

level

20%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

26%

Augsburg U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Augsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

C. Lannert

37'

R. Kasiar← L. Rasic

53'

F. Hut← D. Jurić

63'

S. Gail← M. Friehe

63'

F. Hut

66'

M. Faßbender← C. Quatruccio

67'

T. Stowasser

84'

T. Stowasser

85'

C. Lannert

87'

L. Ettner← C. Lannert

88'

J. Greppmeir← R. Roesch

88'

M. Ludwig← L. Wiesheu

89'

J. Schuster← K. Danso

Augsburg

Stuttgarter

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: A. Frankenberger

63'▲S. Gail←▼M. Friehe

87'▲L. Ettner←▼C. Lannert

88'▲J. Greppmeir←▼R. Roesch

89'▲J. Schuster←▼K. Danso

Augsburg U19 substitutes

GailEttnerGreppmeirSchusterLeneisJalinousMbila

Manager: R. Trabert

37'▲R. Kasiar←▼L. Rasic

53'▲F. Hut←▼D. Jurić

66'▲M. Faßbender←▼C. Quatruccio

88'▲M. Ludwig←▼L. Wiesheu

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

KasiarHutFaßbenderLudwigMichalikSeltenreichZogaj

Match Recap: Augsburg U19 vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Augsburg U19 beat Stuttgarter K'rs U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 11, 2017.

Goals: C. Lannert (14', 85'), F. Hut (63'), T. Stowasser (67', 84').

The match was played at Paul-Renz-Sportanlage in Augsburg.

Augsburg U19 vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Augsburg U19 vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19