Augsburg U19 0–3 Stuttgart U19: Result & Stats

Augsburg U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Stuttgart U19

D. Hummel 83'

E. Katsianas-Sánchez 57'

L. Egloff 32'

10/19/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 8Rosenaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Augsburg U1928%

×Draw20%

Stuttgart U1952%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Augsburg U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgart U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.37

Augsburg U19

1.73

Stuttgart U19

2.37

Stuttgart U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 70 away

2.15

creates per match

2.77

1.97

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Augsburg U19

2.15

Stuttgart U19

2.77

allows per match

Augsburg U19

1.97

Stuttgart U19

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Augsburg U19+0.00on par

Stuttgart U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg U19 ↓

Stuttgart U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Augsburg U19 or draw

48%

Augsburg U19 or Stuttgart U19

80%

Draw or Stuttgart U19

72%

Winning margin

Augsburg U19 wins by 2+

14%

Stuttgart U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Augsburg U19 1+ goals

82%

Augsburg U19 2+ goals

52%

Augsburg U19 3+ goals

25%

Stuttgart U19 1+ goals

91%

Stuttgart U19 2+ goals

68%

Stuttgart U19 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Augsburg U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Stuttgart U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg U19 at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.97 · 71 matches

Stuttgart U19 away — creates 2.77, concedes 1.31 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg U19 attack 2.15 + Stuttgart U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stuttgart U19 attack 2.77 + Augsburg U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Augsburg U19 scores more

28%

level

20%

Stuttgart U19 scores more

52%

Stuttgart U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stuttgart U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

56'

57'

67'

76'

76'

81'

83'

84'

F. Schumann← B. Hollerbach

85'

L. Benz← A. Kopf

86'

A. Emini← T. Civeja

Augsburg

Stuttgart

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Lanzinger

67'▲J. Kudala←▼F. Gruber

76'▲N. Fundel←▼S. Asta

76'▲T. Mihalic←▼D. Wörns

86'▲A. Emini←▼T. Civeja

Augsburg U19 substitutes

KudalaFundelMihalicEminiZeqiriMüllerJungmann

Manager: N. Willig

56'▲D. Hummel←▼L. Egloff

81'▲B. Caciel←▼P. Lockl

84'▲F. Schumann←▼B. Hollerbach

85'▲L. Benz←▼A. Kopf

Stuttgart U19 substitutes

HummelCacielSchumannBenzGoeggelÖsterle

Match Recap: Augsburg U19 vs Stuttgart U19

Stuttgart U19 beat Augsburg U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 19, 2019.

Goals: L. Egloff (32'), E. Katsianas-Sánchez (57'), D. Hummel (83').

The match was played at Rosenaustadion in Augsburg.

Augsburg U19 vs Stuttgart U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Augsburg U19 vs Stuttgart U19