Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Augsburg II vs Garching — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Augsburg II
Augsburg II
PST
12:00
Garching
Garching
5/16/2020Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 33Rosenaustadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Augsburg II59%
×Draw19%
Garching22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Augsburg II
2.36
Garching
1.38

Augsburg II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 12 away

creates per match

Augsburg II
1.89
Garching
1.33

allows per match

Augsburg II
1.42
Garching
2.83

finishing

Augsburg II+0.00on par
Garching+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Augsburg II ↓

Garching →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Augsburg II or draw
78%
Augsburg II or Garching
81%
Draw or Garching
41%

Winning margin

Augsburg II wins by 2+
37%
Garching wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Augsburg II 1+ goals
90%
Augsburg II 2+ goals
68%
Augsburg II 3+ goals
41%
Garching 1+ goals
75%
Garching 2+ goals
40%
Garching 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Augsburg II (draw refunded)
73%
Garching (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Augsburg II at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.42 · 88 matches

Garching away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Augsburg II attack 1.89 + Garching defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.36

Garching attack 1.33 + Augsburg II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Augsburg II scores more
59%
level
19%
Garching scores more
22%

Augsburg II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Augsburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Augsburg II vs Garching — Match Preview

Augsburg II face Garching on May 16, 2020 in this Regionalliga - Bayern fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Augsburg II host Garching at Rosenaustadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.