Auerbach 0–1 Union Sandersdorf: Result & Stats

Auerbach

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Union Sandersdorf

11/4/2023

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 12Arena zur Vogtlandweide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Auerbach49%

×Draw24%

Union Sandersdorf27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuerbachExpected goals in this matchUnion Sandersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.23

Auerbach

1.73

Union Sandersdorf

1.23

Auerbach creates 41% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 81 away

1.85

creates per match

1.19

1.27

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Auerbach

1.85

Union Sandersdorf

1.19

allows per match

Auerbach

1.27

Union Sandersdorf

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auerbach+0.00on par

Union Sandersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auerbach ↓

Union Sandersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Auerbach or draw

73%

Auerbach or Union Sandersdorf

76%

Draw or Union Sandersdorf

51%

Winning margin

Auerbach wins by 2+

26%

Union Sandersdorf wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Auerbach 1+ goals

82%

Auerbach 2+ goals

52%

Auerbach 3+ goals

25%

Union Sandersdorf 1+ goals

71%

Union Sandersdorf 2+ goals

35%

Union Sandersdorf 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Auerbach (draw refunded)

64%

Union Sandersdorf (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auerbach at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Union Sandersdorf away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auerbach attack 1.85 + Union Sandersdorf defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Union Sandersdorf attack 1.19 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Auerbach scores more

49%

level

24%

Union Sandersdorf scores more

27%

Auerbach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff