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Auerbach vs SC Freital — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Auerbach
Auerbach
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
SC Freital
SC Freital
11/24/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 14Arena zur Vogtlandweide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Auerbach42%
×Draw24%
SC Freital35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auerbach
1.65
SC Freital
1.49

Auerbach creates 11% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Auerbach
1.85
SC Freital
1.71

allows per match

Auerbach
1.27
SC Freital
1.45

finishing

Auerbach+0.00on par
SC Freital+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auerbach ↓

SC Freital →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Auerbach or draw
65%
Auerbach or SC Freital
76%
Draw or SC Freital
58%

Winning margin

Auerbach wins by 2+
21%
SC Freital wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Auerbach 1+ goals
81%
Auerbach 2+ goals
49%
Auerbach 3+ goals
23%
SC Freital 1+ goals
77%
SC Freital 2+ goals
44%
SC Freital 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Auerbach (draw refunded)
54%
SC Freital (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auerbach at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

SC Freital away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.45 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auerbach attack 1.85 + SC Freital defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.65

SC Freital attack 1.71 + Auerbach defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Auerbach scores more
42%
level
24%
SC Freital scores more
35%

Auerbach at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Auerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auerbach vs SC Freital

Auerbach beat SC Freital 5-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Arena zur Vogtlandweide in Auerbach.