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Auda vs Rīgas FS — Virsliga 2026

Auda
Auda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
3/8/2024VirsligaVirsliga · Round 1Mežaparks Sports Village

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Auda28%
×Draw24%
Rīgas FS48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auda
1.22
Rīgas FS
1.68

Rīgas FS creates 38% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 117 away

creates per match

Auda
1.52
Rīgas FS
2.26

allows per match

Auda
1.10
Rīgas FS
0.92

finishing

Auda+0.00on par
Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auda ↓

Rīgas FS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Auda or draw
52%
Auda or Rīgas FS
76%
Draw or Rīgas FS
72%

Winning margin

Auda wins by 2+
11%
Rīgas FS wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Auda 1+ goals
70%
Auda 2+ goals
34%
Auda 3+ goals
12%
Rīgas FS 1+ goals
81%
Rīgas FS 2+ goals
50%
Rīgas FS 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Auda (draw refunded)
37%
Rīgas FS (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auda at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 82 matches

Rīgas FS away — creates 2.26, concedes 0.92 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auda attack 1.52 + Rīgas FS defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Rīgas FS attack 2.26 + Auda defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Auda scores more
28%
level
24%
Rīgas FS scores more
48%

Rīgas FS at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auda vs Rīgas FS

Rīgas FS beat Auda 2-1 in Virsliga on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Mežaparks Sports Village in Riga.