Auda vs BFC Daugavpils: Preview & Prediction

Auda

Preview

16:00

BFC Daugavpils

7/26/2026

Virsliga · Round 24Skonto stadions

Big match

53%

Auda

model favours

53%24%23%

BFC Daugavpils score first in only 26% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Auda53%

×Draw24%

BFC Daugavpils23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AudaExpected goals in this matchBFC Daugavpils

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.02

Auda

1.68

BFC Daugavpils

1.02

Auda creates 65% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 113 away

1.52

creates per match

0.94

1.10

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Auda

1.52

BFC Daugavpils

0.94

allows per match

Auda

1.10

BFC Daugavpils

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Auda+0.00on par

BFC Daugavpils+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auda ↓

BFC Daugavpils →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Auda or draw

77%

Auda or BFC Daugavpils

76%

Draw or BFC Daugavpils

47%

Winning margin

Auda wins by 2+

29%

BFC Daugavpils wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Auda 1+ goals

81%

Auda 2+ goals

50%

Auda 3+ goals

24%

BFC Daugavpils 1+ goals

64%

BFC Daugavpils 2+ goals

27%

BFC Daugavpils 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Auda (draw refunded)

70%

BFC Daugavpils (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auda at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 82 matches

BFC Daugavpils away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.84 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auda attack 1.52 + BFC Daugavpils defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.68

BFC Daugavpils attack 0.94 + Auda defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Auda scores more

53%

level

24%

BFC Daugavpils scores more

23%

Auda at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Auda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Auda score first in only 28% of matches
53% of BFC Daugavpils’s goals come after the 75th minute
BFC Daugavpils win just 20% of their away games
Auda win just 16% against the top half (vs 71% against the bottom)
BFC Daugavpils win just 13% against the top half (vs 41% against the bottom)
Auda matches are rarely goalless — only 3.1% end 0-0